Future Heat Demand in Dutch District Heating: A Case Study of Amsterdam North

Abstract

A way to mitigate climate change is the use of district heat networks for space heating in cities, which are becoming increasingly common in urban areas. Investments are done in heat sources based on the peak heat demand which happens during the coldest moment of the year during a peak moment. It is unclear how climate change and insulation measures, which influence the peak heat demand of a building, will affect the peak heat demand of the Netherlands in the future. This study develops a forecast based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP’s) and the National Insulation Programme using a Monte Carlo simulation. By combining future minimal temperature data resulting from the SSP’s with the change of the Dutch building stock insulation characteristics resulting from the National Insulation Programme, a case study has been used to show the change in peak heat demand. The Dutch building stock is assessed using eight different building types, which are separated into eight building year categories. A comparison has been made with the current peak heat demand calculation method of Vattenfall, which uses a standard minimum outside temperature of -10°C and distinguishes the Dutch building stock in four categories. Results show that using temperature forecast of climate models instead of a standard -10°C design temperature can result in a 4.1-19.7% decrease in peak heat demand using climate model minimum temperature data and a larger 8.5-28.3% reduction if North-Holland climate model results are used which represent the district where the case is situated in. The actual implementation rate of the National Insulation Programme is still unclear, but with an 100% implementation rate, where the building stock of the Netherlands is isolated to at least energy label B in 2050, a reduction of 32.8-38% in total heat demand can be achieved. For a slightly lower implementation rate due to expected implications with insulation measures, a reduction of 22.9-29.3% is possible. Finally, a conservative implementation rate of 60% can lead to an increase of 17.6-30.2% in total heat demand. The study shows that a more detailed distinction of the Dutch building stock using building categories based on insulation standards result in a more precise forecast of peak heat demand as insulation standards have become more stringent over the years, resulting in a lower peak heat demand due to lower heat losses.