| dc.description.abstract | A way to mitigate climate change is the use of district heat networks for space heating in cities, which
are becoming increasingly common in urban areas. Investments are done in heat sources based on the
peak heat demand which happens during the coldest moment of the year during a peak moment. It is
unclear how climate change and insulation measures, which influence the peak heat demand of a
building, will affect the peak heat demand of the Netherlands in the future. This study develops a
forecast based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP’s) and the National Insulation Programme
using a Monte Carlo simulation. By combining future minimal temperature data resulting from the SSP’s
with the change of the Dutch building stock insulation characteristics resulting from the National
Insulation Programme, a case study has been used to show the change in peak heat demand. The Dutch
building stock is assessed using eight different building types, which are separated into eight building
year categories. A comparison has been made with the current peak heat demand calculation method
of Vattenfall, which uses a standard minimum outside temperature of -10°C and distinguishes the Dutch
building stock in four categories.
Results show that using temperature forecast of climate models instead of a standard -10°C design
temperature can result in a 4.1-19.7% decrease in peak heat demand using climate model minimum
temperature data and a larger 8.5-28.3% reduction if North-Holland climate model results are used
which represent the district where the case is situated in. The actual implementation rate of the
National Insulation Programme is still unclear, but with an 100% implementation rate, where the
building stock of the Netherlands is isolated to at least energy label B in 2050, a reduction of 32.8-38%
in total heat demand can be achieved. For a slightly lower implementation rate due to expected
implications with insulation measures, a reduction of 22.9-29.3% is possible. Finally, a conservative
implementation rate of 60% can lead to an increase of 17.6-30.2% in total heat demand.
The study shows that a more detailed distinction of the Dutch building stock using building categories
based on insulation standards result in a more precise forecast of peak heat demand as insulation
standards have become more stringent over the years, resulting in a lower peak heat demand due to
lower heat losses. | |
