Modeling ozone Air Quality in the Netherlands and North-Western Europe in 2050

Abstract

Tropospheric ozone is a species whose concentration partially depends on meteorology, and partially on a complex non-linear chemistry. It is also hazardous to human health, and high ozone spikes in particular can be damaging to the respiratory and cardiovascular systems. Investigating the effect of climate change on ozone is a necessary aspect of any assessment of any future health impacts. This study aims to use two Representative Con- centration Pathways (2.6 and 8.5) to quantify what changes in climate mean for ozone air quality and associated health effects in North-Western Europe. The WRF-Chem model is used, with a high resolution (6.6 x 6.6 km) domain nested in larger, lower-resolution pan-European parent domains. Firstly, the methods of speciation for Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds, emis- sions & forcing input, boundary & initial conditions for the different scenarios are intro- duced. The model is then shown to have a general negative bias when considering ozone levels, most likely due to inconsistencies between the emissions dataset and fluctuations in local emissions on short timescales. This results in likely very conservative estimates Relative Risk to health as a result of ozone pollution in the model, but the risk can be shown to be increasing from 2010 to 2050. Shown also is that general ozone levels are less sensitive to climate changes directly but more so to Nitrogen Oxides (NO x = NO + NO 2 ) concentrations, which themselves are influenced to a degree by meteorology.