The model validation debate and implications on decision making processes

Abstract

In the procedure of trying to understand complex environmental processes, models have been widely used as tools in scientific research. According to their potential purposes, models have multiple applications, mainly linked to scientific research (scientific models) and to management advice provision (engineering models), with those aiming to form predictions gaining ground and forming the basis for public policy decision making in local, regional, national and international levels. Therefore, there is a need of an objective form of model assessment in order to evaluate the reliability of such models. There has been a lot of debate on the model validation issue, especially around the radical view of Oreskes et al. (1994) stating that is impossible. These discussions, although constructing, are at times hampering the processes for which models are made, such as decision and policy making. The implications on these procedures are increasingly being studied, and new methods are continuously being suggested in order to address and tackle them.