Application of storylines for strategy development in flood risk management (FRM); A case study on the flooding of the island of Dordrecht (the Netherlands)
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Background: During the last decade many countries made a switch in the approach of flood risk management (FRM) towards more integrated approaches that focus on more than one layer of phase of the total flooding process. However, the methods used to develop strategies within FRM do not yet show the need, possibilities, impact and interactions between measures at these different layers or phases. A new method has thus to be introduced in these matters. The storyline method might give insights in these factors and support the development of strategies that contain a consistent set of measures at all layers or phases of an integrated FMR strategy. Within this method a storyline is defined as a realistic sequence of incidents and (human) responses that may happen during a flood event. Aim of the research: The aim of the research is to develop and evaluate the storyline method as a tool to develop strategies in an integrated FRM approach. Approach: The storylines were developed by first setting up a framework to comprise all information on the island of Dordrecht that can contribute to the sequence of incidents and human responses during a flood. Secondly, based on this knowledge of the island of Dordrecht, the elements that need to be incorporated to form a realistic storyline were selected. Furthermore, it was determined which flooding scenarios were most relevant to describe in a storyline.Thirdly, the resulting storylines were analyzed. Finally, it was discussed to which extent storylines support FRM in the Netherlands. It was also discussed whether the storyline method is suitable for assessing integrated FRM approaches in general/in other countries. Results: Storylines should at least exist of 4 actors (water, critical infrastructure, authorities, civilians living inside the dike ring and civilians) and 3 phases (before, during and after the inundation). Three storylines are developed for the case study on the island of Dordrecht. Two for flood events under the current FRM situation (1 worst case scenario) and one for flood events for a future FRM situation with measures taken at more FRM layers. Conclusions: Storylines are useful for strategy development for integrated FRM approaches. The method is area specific and cannot be used for comparing areas with each other or for larger areas. It gives insights in the many different components that influence a story, and more important it gives insights in the complexity of these components influencing each other and easily shows knowledge gaps. A disadvantage of the storyline method is that it is a time consuming method.