Moscow-Damascus: How the Ukraine War Disrupted the Patron-Client Relationship Between Russia and Syria.

Abstract

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24th February 2022, most research has focused on the war’s impact on Europe. Despite there being clear consequences for the European region, this conflict has also had significant repercussions on the Middle East. The Kremlin had long been present in the region, but since 2015, with the Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war, it has significantly increased its influence over the country’s dynamics. The aim of this thesis is to identify how Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine (2022-present) impacted the patron-client relation (PCR) between Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Bashar al-Assad’s authoritarian regime in Syria. This research contributes to theoretical debates on PCR by identifying its weaknesses and failures in the case of the Russia-Syria alliance. The findings show that the Russian regime disengaged from Syria diplomatically, economically, and militarily following the escalation of the war in Ukraine. This gradual withdrawal created security gaps but also revealed many irregularities in the Kremlin’s support to Assad, highlighting Putin’s lack of commitment to its client state and unreliability when most needed.