Future of Carbon-Neutral Aviation: Synthetic Aviation Fuel Potential for Singapore Airlines

Abstract

Aviation brought unimaginable wealth to the world over the past century. However, the sector’s negative impact has come under increasing scrutiny. It remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and alternatives are not ready. Therefore, this research explores a hydrogen-based fuel for its compatibility with current hardware without the drawback of fossil fuels. Some airliners take more ambitious steps to decarbonize—Singapore Airlines among the most proactive. This research aims to answer the question: What are the opportunities and challenges for synthetic aviation fuel for Singapore Airlines produced in the Singaporean industrial environment? The research is divided into four phases: - What are technical shortcomings for synthetic aviation fuel (SAF) production in the current infrastructure? - To what extent can SAF produced from green hydrogen (GH) and recycled carbon (RC) help Singapore Airlines (SIA) achieve its CO2 reduction targets? - What are the most significant challenges that might hinder SAF implementation? - What are the required financial investments to overcome these shortcomings? In the first phase, using the Supply Chain Management Framework (SCMF), the key components for the SAF supply chain have been identified. Based on insights from industry experts and desk research, each component was evaluated for SAF readiness. The research showed that current technical infrastructural shortcomings are raw material sourcing for SAF, the SAF production process, and blending and logistics of SAF and conventional jet fuel (CJF). In the second phase, a life-cycle analysis (LCA) was conducted in SimaPro. In an ideal well-to-tank SAF scenario, the research shows that SAF can be over 80% less harmful to the environment compared to CJF, showing significant environmental benefits and potential to help SIA meet its CO2 targets. Subsequently, based on the SCMF, the SAF supply chain has been set up in the third phase. During the development of the supply chain, the most difficult concept was raw material sourcing, primarily due to the high electricity requirements for electrolysis. In the final phase, the investments required specifically for SIA to establish a supply chain to supply 5% SAF in 2030 are approximately $27.5 billion. To conclude this research, it is feasible for SIA to use 5% SAF in 2030, corresponding to 255,000 tons of SAF, indicating significant potential. To realize this potential, the challenge is to raise $27.5 billion through public-private partnerships to set up hydrogen production plants, carbon capture installations, solar fields, and SAF production facilities.