Divided and Disengaged: Affective Polarisation and Political Engagement Across Migration Backgrounds

Abstract

Over the past 25 years, populism and radical political parties have risen in the Netherlands. The current debate often ascribes detrimental consequences for democracy to polarisation. However, polarisation could be a multifaceted, ambivalent phenomenon, and other forms could have different effects. This study examines the relationship between affective political polarisation and political participation in the Netherlands and whether this relationship differs across migration background. Affective polarisation refers to high levels of in-group favouritism and out-group hostility, stemming from political or partisan identity. Theoretically, the thesis draws on Social Identity Theory to explain how in-group and out-group dynamics may influence political behaviour and how it may stimulate political participation. Using data from wave 17 of the Politics and Values module of the LISS panel (N = 5,606), the study investigates whether affective polarisation positively influences political participation, and how this effect is higher for non-Western migrants and weaker for Western migrants. The results show that the main effect of affective polarisation on political participation is statistically significant, while moderation effects by migration background are not. Descriptive analyses reveal a general decline in political participation in the Netherlands since 2007, especially among migrant groups. Additionally, the study suggests that traditional measures of political participation may be outdated. Policy recommendations include targeted political education, inclusive recruitment in political parties, digital engagement strategies for younger generations, and anti-discrimination campaigns to restore trust in government institutions. Ultimately, this study offers a nuanced perspective on how affective polarisation shapes democratic participation in an increasingly diverse society.