How Does the Shift from 2D to 3D Data Visualization Shape Managerial Decision-Making Under Uncertainty in Cross-Border and Domestic Acquisitions?

Abstract

Thesis Summary – The Impact of 3D Data Visualization on Decision-Making Under Uncertainty in M&A Due Diligence

This thesis explores how transitioning from traditional 2D financial reports to immersive 3D data visualization affects managerial decision-making under uncertainty during mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The research addresses a critical challenge in international business: how to interpret complex financial data in high-stakes environments where decisions must be made despite incomplete information, potential bias, and cognitive overload.

The study is grounded in Cognitive Fit Theory and dual-processing models of decision-making. It hypothesizes that 3D visualizations, when used in virtual or augmented reality environments, can enhance interpretability, reduce perceived uncertainty, and improve decision confidence by aligning information format with task complexity.

To test these hypotheses, an experimental case study was conducted with 48 participants, primarily business professionals and graduate students in finance. Each participant analyzed two real-life M&A cases (Shaw Communications and Delta Lloyd), once using conventional 2D charts and tables, and once using interactive 3D dashboards in a VR/AR simulation. After each case, participants completed a structured survey measuring key constructs such as confidence, perceived risk, interpretability, bias (e.g., confirmation bias), cognitive effort, and preference.

The results, analyzed using two-way ANOVA and principal component analysis (PCA), provide strong support for the positive impact of 3D formats. Participants reported higher confidence and interpretability in the 3D condition. Perceived uncertainty and bias indicators (e.g., confirmation bias, overoptimism) were significantly lower when using 3D visualizations. Interestingly, although 3D required slightly more cognitive effort, participants preferred it overall due to enhanced clarity and engagement.

These findings have practical implications for financial analysts, consultants, and executives involved in cross-border M&A, especially in unfamiliar or high-risk environments. 3D visualizations can serve as strategic tools to reduce cognitive friction and facilitate better decision-making, particularly in due diligence processes that involve evaluating profitability, leverage, growth, and synergy potential.

In conclusion, this thesis contributes to the growing field of immersive analytics and demonstrates that visualization format is not merely a design choice but a strategic variable that shapes decision outcomes. It opens the door for further research on how technological advancements can support more informed, confident, and less biased financial decisions in international business contexts.