Chasing 28th by '28: EU conditionality and the challenges of state capture in Montenegro's path to EU membership

Abstract

This thesis investigates how and to what extent European Union (EU) conditionality has facilitated the process of state capture in Montenegro. Although EU conditionality is intended to promote democratic reform, growing concerns about its effectiveness in the Western Balkans raise essential questions about its unintended consequences. The research applies the money, power, glory (MPG) model by Richter and Wunsch (2020) as an analytical framework and is based on a qualitative methodology combining document analysis and semi-structured interviews. The study confirms two of the three hypotheses. In Montenegro, EU conditionality has contributed to weakening domestic deliberation (power mechanism) and provided external legitimacy by rewarding superficial compliance over substantive reform (glory mechanism). While EU conditionality has not directly caused state capture in Montenegro, it has shaped an environment in which it can persist through its emphasis on formal benchmarks rather than implementation. The findings of this thesis suggest that to remain credible and effective, EU conditionality must shift its focus from formal legal approximation to actual implementation, engage civil society more meaningfully, and acknowledge its own role in enabling state capture. Furthermore, enlargement tools should be tailored to national contexts without undermining transparency or fairness. The thesis contributes to the literature by offering new insights into the complex interplay between external incentives and domestic political dynamics in candidate countries.