Exploring the Viability of Dutch E-Methanol Production for the Maritime Sector

Abstract

This research explores the question: “How can Dutch e-methanol production with reused CO₂ reach a commercial and societal breakthrough in the maritime sector, what are the barriers, and how could these be overcome?”

Rather than focusing solely on technological or economic aspects, this study explores the sociotechnical system surrounding methanol adoption in the maritime industry and e-methanol production in the Netherlands. Using the frameworks of Strategic Niche Management (SNM) and the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP), the research analyses how the emerging fuel e-methanol interacts with the entrenched energy regime in the maritime industry. This regime comprises fossil fuels, well-developed infrastructure, an extensive scientific base, accompanying policies, and a network of actors.

Methodologically, the research draws on a literature review, ten expert interviews, and participatory observation at D4 (the internship-providing company), and system mapping to identify key drivers and constraints.

The findings reveal that the use of methanol and the production of e-methanol are technically feasible and gaining momentum in the shipping industry. Methanol’s liquid state and compatibility with engines and infrastructure make it a practical transitional fuel. However, significant barriers remain, including high production costs, unclear safety regulations, limited bunkering infrastructure, and weak policy support.

This thesis concludes: 1. Green methanol is gradually gaining recognition as a sustainable fuel, being slowly adopted by the maritime industry, but it still faces the complex challenge of not being economically competitive. 2. Dutch production of E-methanol is technically possible, but faces significant challenges due to current market competition from other fuels. Foresight expects that future production will also be complicated, facing competition from worldwide imports from countries with lower production costs. 3. Through SNM processes, the adoption of methanol and e-methanol production could be facilitated. Most importantly, visions can channel expectations, helping companies make informed decisions about adapting to future changes. Significant continued financial incentives are required to make e-methanol production possible in the Netherlands.

A side finding in this study indicates that e-methane, another synthetic fuel, has more Dutch production potential. This is primarily thanks to its domestic market focus rather than an international one.