Towards Safe and Sustainable Aviation Decarbonization: The Case for Fewer Flights on Higher Quality SAF

Abstract

In response to the escalating climate crisis, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) represent the aviation’s latest endeavor to maintain the industry’s license to operate. This thesis meticulously examines SAF technology, risks, markets, and policy with view to understanding the potential of SAF to contribute to aviation decarbonization by 2050. This thesis views SAF in the light of the global energy transition, sustainable development, and justice. It untangles the complex web of the global SAF production, supply, and consumption and highlights areas that require policy attention to ensure that the global transition to SAF is both effective and proceeds in a safe and sustainable manner. This thesis involved systematically analyzing dozens of recent peer-reviewed articles, news stories, reports, reviews and briefings, alongside interviews with senior aviation stakeholders. The primary aim was to define the role of SAF in aviation decarbonization and to understand the extent to which supplementary policy measures are required to achieve aviation decarbonization. The thesis concludes that aviation decarbonization cannot be achieved by SAF alone. To decarbonize aviation, additional measures are required. This thesis argues that to supplement SAF, aviation decarbonization requires a reduction in global flight numbers. If a reduction in flying demand does not accompany the expansion of SAF, then the global aviation decarbonization effort will fall short of its aspirations and will lead to significant adverse environmental and societal impacts in the future. To align SAF policies more closely with sustainable development and justice, SAF policymaking at the global, regional, and national levels must undergo substantial changes. These changes should involve increased and differently designed SAF support, alongside a coordinated global shift in air travel behavior. The extensive research presented throughout this study demonstrates that achieving aviation decarbonization by 2050 is feasible, with SAF playing a pivotal role. However, it emphasizes that SAF is not a panacea and warns against its misuse by individuals, organizations, and countries that would like to evade their responsibility to combat climate change with utmost resolve.