Life on the Sidetrack: On the Detrimental Effects of Extended Uncertainty About the Future on Refugee Depression Scores.

Abstract

Background: Global conflicts and wars have resulted in the displacement of millions, forcing refugees into prolonged uncertainty. While research has consistently shown that the traumatic experiences of war have profound effects on mental health, less attention has been given to how prolonged periods of uncertainty regarding the future exacerbate these issues. This study investigates the relationship between time reflecting uncertainty during forced displacement and depression severity among refugees, while investigating the potential moderating effects of birth country, particularly for Ukrainian refugees who benefit from streamlined asylum processes under the European Union’s Temporary Protection Directive. It was hypothesized that time spent in uncertain conditions would be a statistically significant positive predictor of depression severity (H1), while birth country would be a statistically significant negative moderator of the relationship between time reflecting uncertainty and depression severity (H2). Method: A sample of 22 young adults who have fled their countries was recruited both online and in-person. Participants were asked to complete a questionnaire battery that included demographic questions, a question assessing the length of time spent under uncertain conditions since they had relocated in the Netherlands, and a validated scale assessing depression severity. Results: The analyses indicated that time spent reflecting the uncertain situation was a statistically significant positive predictor of depression severity, suggesting that refugees who had spent more time under uncertain conditions were more likely to experience greater depression severity. However, birth country was not a statistically significant moderator of the relationship between prolonged periods of uncertainty and depression severity. Therefore, H1 was supported, whereas H2 was not. Conclusion: The findings stress the need for host countries to reform asylum processes to reduce the psychological burden on refugees. Early intervention and mental health support are essential in addressing the heightened depression levels associated with prolonged displacement under uncertain conditions.