How the EU’s framing of Russia’s management of LNG as 'weaponization' impacted its energy policy during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 precipitated a substantial alteration in the EU's energy policy, thereby underscoring the critical importance of energy security. This thesis examines the manner in which the EU has addressed energy security and adapted its energy policy in response to the invasion. Historically, crises involving leverage over Russian gas have not resulted in significant policy changes within the EU. However, the 2022 invasion and Russia's subsequent demand for LNG payments in rubles represented a shift in perspective, reframing Russia's energy management as a form of 'weaponization’. This thesis employs a theoretical framework based on energy security to analyse EU policy documents and Council meetings from the past 50 years. The analysis demonstrates the emergence of a strategic shift in energy policy following the invasion, with a particular focus on enhancing energy security. In order to mitigate the risk of future disruptions to its energy supply, the EU has accelerated the diversification of its energy sources. This has involved an increase in LNG imports from alternative suppliers and the establishment of new partnerships. The investment in renewable energy technologies under the REPowerEU plan is intended to reduce the EU's dependence on Russian fossil fuels and enhance its energy self-sufficiency. Furthermore, the EU has adopted a more assertive policy approach, introducing joint gas purchasing agreements, enhancing energy storage capabilities, and establishing regulatory frameworks to stabilise energy prices and ensure market transparency. Collectively, these measures serve to reinforce the EU's energy security framework, thereby fostering enhanced resilience and greater levels of cooperation among member states. This thesis concludes that characterising Russia's LNG management as a form of weaponization has prompted a significant shift in EU energy politics. This shift emphasises the importance of solidarity and self-sufficiency in addressing contemporary energy challenges and ensuring a stable, secure energy supply for the future.