The case of nuclear phase-out postponement in Belgium: atomic habits?

Abstract

ABSTRACT By mapping the political debate on nuclear phase-out postponement in Belgium between 1999 and 2022, this research aims to better understand the role of nuclear techno-optimism in climate and energy policy-making processes. In 2003, Belgium imposed a law to deactivate nuclear power plants after 40 years of service and to phase them out entirely by 2025. After 2003, the lifespan of several nuclear power plants has however been extended with 10 years, resulting in a postponement of the phase-out deadline to 2035 in 2022. Through the Advocacy Coalition Framework, this research attempts to understand the policy subsystem of Belgian nuclear energy and the role of nuclear techno-optimism in it. Through multiple methods - discourse network analysis, policy document analysis and semi-structured interviews - a multitude of data is analyzed to test the hypothesis that in the case of Belgian nuclear phase-out, techno-optimism would have led to outcomes of climate delay. In sum, this research aims to answer the research question: How has the discourse of nuclear techno-optimism impacted policy-output of nuclear phase-out postponement in Belgium between 1999 and 2022?. The policy-output was found to have been impacted by nuclear techno-optimist discourse indeed, as a resourceful and strategic advocacy coalition against phase-out succeeded in organizing itself based on the discourse throughout the years. Nuclear techno-optimism however was not the only driving force observed behind the policy-changes. Stable parameters in place combined with global external shocks have enabled this advocacy coalition to institutionalize its stances.