Cement Demand Forecasting: Developing a Comprehensive Conceptual Framework for Forecasting Cement Demand in EU27 countries.

Abstract

Addressing the transition in energy-intensive sectors, such as the cement industry, is crucial for achieving sustainability and mitigating climate change. Despite this urgent focus on sustainability, specific measures to guide this transition within the cement industry remain undeveloped. This thesis investigates the dynamics of cement demand within the EU27 region, aiming to identify key drivers that policymakers can target to facilitate a successful transition toward more sustainable practices in the industry. The study begins by analysing historical trends and correlations in cement demand driver indicators within the EU27 region and at the country level. These indicators encompass both the direct use of cement in construction activities and the broader socio-economic climate influencing the construction and cement industries. A particular focus is placed on long-term energy models featuring a module dedicated to the cement sector. This approach is for its comprehensive nature, integrating in integrating energy demand projections within sector-specific analysis. The detailed analysis includes three models: IMAGE, FORECAST, and China Energy and Emissions Paths, to identify key considerations for cement demand forecasting. By synthesizing the insights from these two analyses, a comprehensive framework for forecasting cement demand in EU27 countries was developed and tested through a case study in the Netherlands. The framework incorporates both bottom-up (physical demand drivers) and top-down (socio-economic drivers) variables. The framework was specifically modelled for the residential building sector due to limited publicly available data on non-residential buildings average floor areas and construction GVA forecasts. The forecasted cement demand for the Netherlands ranged from 540 ktonnes to 1183 ktonnes by 2050, depending on the explored scenarios. The findings highlight the complex interplay between socio-economic factors with end-user activities, cement intensity factors, and structural changes in the construction and cement industries that interact to shape cement demand. Population growth emerges as a significant driver of cement demand in the model, while household type also plays a crucial role. The research concludes by emphasizing the need for policymakers to incentivize multi-dwelling unit developments, support advanced materials and technologies that reduce cement content while maintaining structural integrity, and align land-use and zoning policies with these objectives.