Russian Disinformation and the OPCW: An Analysis of Russian Efforts to Undermine the FFM and IIT Investigations into the 2018 Douma Chemical Attack

Abstract

This thesis analyses the attempts by Russian state representatives at the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) to undermine the OPCW’s investigations into the April 7th 2018 Douma chemical attack. Forty-three people were killed in the incident when Syrian government forces dropped two chlorine cylinders onto the rebel-held town, provoking international condemnation and punitive military strikes by the US, UK, and France. The OPCW investigated the incident through its Fact-Finding Mission (FFM) and Investigation and Identification Team (IIT), concluding that a chemical attack had indeed occurred and attributing responsibility to regime forces. The Douma incident and subsequent investigations have been the subject of a multidimensional disinformation campaign spearheaded by Russia, the Assad regime’s key ally, aimed at denying regime responsibility and discrediting the OPCW’s findings.

Whilst existing studies have focussed on Russian disinformation in the online sphere, this thesis examines the attempts of Russian representatives at the OPCW and MFA to undermine the FFM and IIT via their official statements on the topic from 2018-2023. Through the Reflexive Thematic Analysis (RTA) of fifty-one Russian statements, the thesis identifies the specific arguments and critiques employed by Russian officials to undermine the investigations. Furthermore, by applying a conceptual framework theorising the authority and legitimacy of international organisations (IOs) and the epistemic authority of international fact-finding missions, the thesis analyses how these arguments and critiques challenged the FFM and IIT. This analysis reveals that Russian officials systematically contested different elements of the claim the epistemic authority of each investigation and, more broadly, the institutional authority and legitimacy of the OPCW.