Nitrogen Regulations and Housing Development in the Netherlands: A Quantitative Analysis

Abstract

As the Netherlands struggles with a housing crisis, nitrogen regulations, aimed at protecting Natura 2000 sites, have been accused of impeding housing development. However, existing studies on the topic have found contrasting results. Therefore, this study aims to provide an overarching, longitudinal analysis to clarify the true impact of nitrogen regulations on housing development in the Netherlands from 2015 to 2022. Linear mixed regression models were used to investigate the effect of municipalities’ average distance to N2000 sites and coverage of 2 buffer zones around these sites on building permits and newly constructed housing.

The results indicate significant decreases in both building permits and newly constructed housing within 1250 meters of the Natura 2000 sites, with these decreases being particularly pronounced following the revocation of Program Approach Nitrogen (PAS). Regarding coverage, significant decreases in newly constructed housing were observed from 2020 to 2022 in the highest coverage categories (both 1250- and 2500-meter buffer zones), while building permits did not show a significant decrease. The construction exemption introduced in late 2021 permitted some construction to occur closer to these sites. A mitigating effect of change in agricultural nitrogen emissions on housing development was not found.

In conclusion, nitrogen regulations have significantly altered the spatial distribution of housing development, however, the affected area is at a closer distance to the N2000 sites than was concluded in previous literature (i.e. EIB, 2023; Rouwendal, 2023). Overall, it seems that the nitrogen regulations have not been a major contributor to the housing crisis in the Netherlands, as their impact has primarily been on the spatial distribution of housing development rather than the total quantity.