Understanding vulnerability: Climate change risk perceptions of environmental non-migrants in coastal Bangladesh

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change risk perception on the vulnerability to climate change of environmental non-migrants (ENMs) in coastal Bangladesh while considering the effects of bonding social capital and intersectionality. A mixed methods research design, involving quantitative and geospatial data collected through surveys, and qualitative observations from conversations, was employed to gather data from 120 ENMs in five different villages in Dumuria Upazila, Bangladesh. This data included risk perceptions, vulnerability, socio-demographic characteristics, migration aspirations and capabilities, and the social context within the villages. A Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI), encompassing three dimensions – exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity – was created, along with a Bonding Social Capital Index (BSCI), which included measures of community support and cohesion. The results indicate that the perceived risk of climate-induced events significantly increases the vulnerability of ENMs, contradicting prior research suggesting that higher risk perception often leads to risk response through adaptive behavior that reduces vulnerability to climate change. The moderating role of bonding social capital on this relationship was not supported by the study, despite its projected potential to decrease vulnerability through community support. Socio-demographic characteristics and their intersection were shown to influence both risk perceptions and vulnerability. Specifically, women tended to perceive the risk of climate- induced events as lower than men. In contrast, older individuals perceived their family's chances of surviving a climate disaster as lower than younger people. Additionally, ENMs with lower education levels, lower income levels, as well as older and less educated individuals, exhibited heightened vulnerabilities. The majority of the sample were ‘trapped’, lacking the financial or social resources to migrate despite having migration aspirations. This highlights the importance of context- specific, tailored policies for ENMs, as their vulnerabilities and risk perceptions evolve from a unique environment. This study emphasizes the need for inclusive and equitable climate change adaptation strategies that leverage local knowledge for effective disaster risk reduction. Overall, this study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities.