The effects of multi-system dynamics on the diffusion of electrofuels: A maritime sector case study

Abstract

While sustainability transition studies primarily analysed single socio-technical systems, this approach disregards the complexity of sustainability transitions that often involves actors, technologies, and institutions of multiple systems. Therefore, this thesis proposes an integral framework to understand better how multi-system dynamics affect the diffusion of innovations using: 1) institutional theory (the socio); 2) technological sector interactions (the technical); and 3) boundary-spanning and system-entangling activities of actors between multiple socio-technical systems. Following an abductive research design by iteratively analysing the acquired empirical data from 23 semi-structured interviews and 10 informal expert discussions using the qualitative analysis software of NVivo, a case study of the diffusion of electrofuels (e-fuels) into the maritime sector as one of the ‘hard-to-abate’ sectors is conducted to validate this novel approach. As the e-fuels system is centred between various up and downstream sectors and thereby subject to various socio-technical interactions, it poses an interesting case for assessing multi-system dynamics. The results show that using these different theoretical concepts has uncovered the different natures and levels of socio-technical drivers and barriers for e-fuel adoption into the maritime sector stemming from multi-system interactions. Some fundamental interactions include the mismatching institutions between e-fuels and maritime actors, such as long versus short-term strategic orientation or different stances towards collaborations, which result in clear sociological barriers. Additionally, the competing and symbiotic relationships of technologies within the e-fuels sector (intra-sector), the mutual dependency of up and downstream technologies along the value chain (inter-sector), and the rivalling interests of e-fuel (components) by numerous end-user sectors (cross-sector) illustrates the technological embeddedness of the e-fuels system. Considering the socio-technical interactions mentioned above, the most prominent actors trying to bridge the gaps between the e-fuels and maritime systems include NGOs, industry associations, and research institutes. These actors possess a deeper understanding of the socio-technical barriers and pinpoint some unique leverage points for interventions. Therefore, this framework has formed the basis for defining specific policy objectives and interventions to address the different nature and levels of socio-technical drivers and barriers. In this regard, this research provided a comprehensive approach to understanding the effects of multi-system dynamics on the diffusion of innovations and has paved the way for future studies to explore the effects of multi-system dynamics in different environments and contexts.