What will a hub-based offshore network in the North Sea look like by 2050?

Abstract

In light of climate change and energy security issues, ambitious decarbonisation targets have been set across Europe. A cornerstone of realising these goals is a massive expansion of offshore wind power located in the North Sea. This area is one of the most favourable locations for successful wind projects in the world, due to a reliable wind resource and shallow waters. Considering announced plans to build upwards of 300 GW of offshore wind in the North Sea, how to best integrate this into the existing onshore energy system remains uncertain. A possible solution that has gained momentum in recent years is the build-out of an integrated transmission network placed offshore. This could transport the energy generated from offshore wind farms via a hub-based system to several nations. The hub-based network can comprise both power and hydrogen transmission infrastructure, as well as electrolysers placed offshore. This project investigated potential configurations of such a hub-based offshore network in the North Sea by 2050, using a linear optimisation model. 2030 and 2040 were set as intermediate simulation years to monitor developments across the time horizon. The results indicate substantial build-out of both power and hydrogen transmission infrastructure, across all modelling runs. It predominantly consists of electricity connections, but hydrogen connections are also present. The electricity network displays both hub-to-hub as well as hub-to-shore connectivity. Major connection points across the offshore power network were found to be the areas around offshore wind farms (OWF) East Anglia, Nederwiek, Dogger Bank, and German search areas N 17-20. The 2050 offshore hydrogen network exhibits hub-to-hub connections between OWFs East Anglia and Nederwiek, and far-from-shore German OWF search areas N 17-20 and British Dogger Bank respectively. All other offshore nodes display the build-out of hydrogen pipelines which are radially connected to the shore.