Mental Model Complexity of Climate Change Causes and Consequences in Lake Victoria and Lagos: A Study on the Effects of Gender and Levels of Risk Perception

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to gain insight into the mental model (MM) complexity of climate change causes and consequences. Two African regions, Lake Victoria and Lagos, which are severely impacted by climate change, were selected to assess the complexity of MM. Differences in MM complexity have been discerned by quantitively comparing the MM of climate change perceptions elicited through the M-Tool application, allowing to compare MM complexity between groups. The first research question investigated whether MM of climate change consequences consists of more concepts than MM of climate change causes. It was found that people tend to have a more comprehensive understanding of the potential consequences of climate change compared to the causes. When people in Lake Victoria and Lagos lack understanding of the multiple scientifically accurate causes of climate change, those impacted by climate change may not be able to recognize stakeholders beyond themselves or their region who contribute to climate change. As a result, they may be unable to hold these stakeholders accountable or confront them with their responsibilities to mitigate climate change. The second question addressed whether gender explains differences in MM complexity. No consistent gender differences in MM complexity of climate change causes and consequences were found, except for the amount of included concepts of MM of climate change causes in Lake Victoria. The results suggest that efforts to improve the amount of concepts in MM of climate change causes in Lake Victoria should take into account gender differences. However, the inclusion of more concepts by men in Lake Victoria does not necessarily indicate that men have more knowledge of the causes of climate change than women. This is because people with a higher level of system-thinking capabilities may have the ability to simplify complex relationships. Thus, it is not guaranteed that the MM will become more complex when increasing female knowledge of the causes of climate change in Lake Victoria. To recommend appropriate interventions, further research shall identify whether women in Lake Victoria have a less complex MM of climate change causes due to knowledge limitations or whether system-thinking capabilities led them to focus on the most important concepts causing climate change. The third question investigated whether risk perception levels explain differences in MM complexity. The results indicated a positive relationship between a greater perceived risk in Lagos, resulting in a higher amount of included concepts at the MM of the causes and consequences of climate change, and in Lake Victoria, a higher amount of included concepts at MM of the consequences of climate change. Those findings indicate that communication strategies can focus on increasing people's perception of climate change risk to enlarge the amount of included concepts. Enlarging the amount of included concepts in a person’s MM is recommended to gain a broader understanding of climate change concepts. A system thinking approach can benefit people in making better-informed decisions about climate change because they are better aware of the interconnectedness of multiple causes and consequences of climate change. It should be emphasized that although it is important for people to understand several causes and consequences of climate change, too much complexity can danger a feeling of disempowerment, giving people a sense that they cannot take action to deal with all causes of climate change. Also, the results may indicate that people with a higher perception of risk may have a greater level of awareness to identify different climate change concepts. However, they may not understand how these concepts are interconnected, which may indicate a lack of integrated research.