Exploring a safe and just operating space for the Dutch energy system

Abstract

Introduction Current policies steering the energy transition are mostly focussed on preventing GHG emissions, even though energy systems have other ecological and social impacts through air pollution, land use, health, and inequalities. By adopting the doughnut economy framework’s multiple ecological and social boundaries a safe and just operating space for the Dutch energy transition can be envisioned. The factors influencing the pathway towards an energy system within the doughnut are mapped in the multi-level perspective.

Theory The doughnut economy framework consists of an ecological ceiling based on biophysical planetary boundaries and a social foundation consisting of social sustainable development goals, although not all doughnut boundaries are relevant in the Dutch energy system context. The multi-level perspective is used to map influencing factors and energy system dynamics within landscape and regime levels, also policies are expected to be an especially important influencing factor for sustainable transitions.

Methodology The study uses a qualitative method consisting of literature research and expert interviews, which are used to determine relevant doughnut boundaries, and study the impacts on these boundaries by the four components of the energy system, production, transport, storage, and use. The expert interviews provide insights into expectations of an energy system complying to the relevant boundaries and the influencing factors of this energy transition pathway. The interview data was transcribed and analysed in a deductive and inductive coding process.

Results Relevant ecological boundaries of the doughnut are climate change, air pollution, land conversion, and biodiversity, while the social boundaries relate to equality in the current population, intergenerational equality, health, and financial resources. The main social boundary interactions were at the energy use component, while ecological interactions occurred mostly at the production, transport, and storage. Placing these findings in the multi-level perspective, landscape influences on the energy transition towards doughnut framework compliance cause frictions in the regime, while the regime also contains numerous constraints in the areas of policy, technologies, markets, incumbents, and culture.

Discussion/Conclusion How an energy system compliant with doughnut boundaries would look, is not only influenced by the boundaries of the doughnut itself. Also, socio-technical landscape influences, such as geospatial constraints, or geopolitical instabilities lead to pressures on the regime which are currently not anticipated on sufficiently by the energy system actors and policymakers. The energy system actors can influence socio-technical regime areas like energy policy, which plays an important role determining the energy system compliant with the doughnut economy framework.