Implications of emission reduction target interaction on the conversion strategies of existing buildings to NZEB
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Of all existing buildings that are currently in use, about 90% is estimated to still be in use by 2050. This creates urgency to convert existing buildings to NZEB in order to achieve international, national and regional energy reduction targets. For buildings there are short-term and long-term reduction targets set by governments which aim to reduce the energy consumption of existing buildings by a given year. This paper investigated how these targets can be met and if and how they interact when scenarios are drawn up to reach them. This was done by conducting a case study of the real estate portfolio of the KNAW (Royal Dutch Academy of Arts & Science), consisting of six different identifiably buildings, spread over five research institutes, in four different cities in the Netherlands. The research constructed two scenarios for these six buildings, setting up short-term scenario and a long-term scenario. Focusing respectively on short-term targets by implementing short-term scenario measures and long-term targets by implementing long-term scenario measures and focusing on regional policy such as the WTV (Transition Vision for Heat). The scenarios were constructed using building energy performance data, energy price predictions and energy conservation measure lists. With sensitivity analysis conducted on both energy prices and saving and cost parameters, the results from the study found negative interaction between the short-term and long-term targets for two of the six buildings under certain input parameters. These negative interactions resulted from the need for early depreciation of short-term measures when the implementation of long-term scenario measures needed to be executed.