Climate change and the potential introduction and persistence of Phlebotomine sandflies, a risk factor for leishmaniasis in the Netherlands

Abstract

Climate change affects the geographical distribution of Phlebotomus species (sand flies), the vector for leishmaniasis, which could lead to the introduction of the sand flies in the Netherlands. This study discusses data on habitat preferences of three Phlebotomus species (P. mascittii, P. ariasi, and P. perniciosus), climate change scenarios in the Netherlands, regional differences in the Netherlands, and data on future distribution of the species in Europe. The aim was to assess the likelihood of the introduction of sand flies in the Netherlands in general and to examine regional differences in the Netherlands to determine the locations most appropriate for early detection of the species. Additionally, prevention and control strategies were considered. The study method was divided into two elements: a systematic literature search and a website search. The latter was used to obtain current and future climatic data. According to the results, there is a certain chance that Phlebotomus sand flies will migrate and establish in the Netherlands around the year 2050. The most likely introduction of the species will be from the German border into the south- and central-eastern parts of the Netherlands. Study results conclude that temperature is the most important parameter that influences the settling of sand flies. Additional results show that an increased number of imported dogs from endemic regions into the Netherlands contributes to the establishment of the disease cycle, since dogs are the reservoir for the Leishmania amastigotes. This study suggests that health authorities should start with screening programs once the temperature requirements of the vector are reached in the Netherlands. Advice should be given on the risks by import-dogs from endemic regions. Once the vector establishes in the Netherlands, advice should be given on preventive measurements for immunosuppressed humans, non-infected dogs that live in a sand fly positive location, and infected dogs to prevent further transmission of the pathogen. Additionally, authorities have to prepare proper prevention strategies with an “One Health” approach.