Norway's EV incentives: a success story? Evaluating the effectiveness of Norway's incentive mix for EV uptake and transition.

Abstract

Introduction: Electric vehicles (EVs) are increasingly promoted for sustainable personal mobility, due to potential environmental benefits. To accelerate their uptake, governments around the world have introduced financial and non-financial EV incentives, Norway taking the lead. Considering this frontrunner position, Norway can offer lessons to other countries. Existing literature insufficiently explores the process of uptake and an incentive mix’s broader implications, both positive and negative. To fill this gap, the following research question is addressed: How effective is Norway’s incentive mix for EV uptake and transition, and what are the implications for EV transitions in other countries?

Theory: This research builds on transitions theory, specifically the multi-level perspective, pinpointing the limited knowledge of how a niche scales up to the mainstream. It focuses on incentives enabling uptake, the research adopting a novel, holistic categorisation of incentives: financial, infrastructure, and normative. By applying and adapting the extended policy mix concept, an incentive mix effectiveness assessment framework is constructed with indicators, evaluating an incentive mix based on four characteristics’ presence: Consistency, Coherence, Credibility, and Comprehensiveness (4 Cs).

Methods: This research employs an embedded, single-case study design, examining Norway’s incentive mix through the lens of different stakeholder groups. To apply the assessment framework and gather qualitative primary data, 25 semi-structured interviews were conducted with varying actors, identified through stakeholder mapping. Interview questions were formulated using framework indicators and during data analysis, thematic coding systematically categorised findings according to the 4 Cs.

Results: Norway employs financial, infrastructure and normative EV incentives – economic ones being most influential for uptake. Arguments for and against the 4 Cs’ presence are made. Strong incentive mix effectiveness is exemplified by rapid EV growth, widespread support, and political consensus. However, weak effectiveness is manifested through emerging problems being insufficiently tackled, certain political parties’ resistance, and suggested improvements. Various lessons from Norway are identified, including the necessity for widespread charging infrastructure.

Discussion/Conclusion: While Norway’s EV uptake has induced local environmental benefits and stimulated market development, this research demonstrates the incentive mix’s costly nature, both in monetary terms and negative implications, limiting its effectiveness. By adopting a pioneering EV role globally, Norway undoubtedly ran the risk of encountering mistakes. Although problems should not be disregarded, Norway’s experiences lay the foundations for effective incentive mixes elsewhere. The research illustrates the need to recognise that EVs are only a small part of road transport’s sustainability transition, a shift from private to public transport being crucial.