How can the gap between Stakeholder Analysis and Agent-Based Modelling be bridged by modelling stakeholder and user behaviour to investigate the maintenance alternatives of an anthropogenic sandy shore?

Abstract

This thesis research has two main objectives. The first one is generic and is about developing an approach to translating non-numerical outcomes of stakeholder analysis into a numerical simulation model. This has been done by adopting an existing approach that integrates cognitive mapping and Agent-Based Modelling. The development of a System Dynamics Model and an integrated hybrid model is added to this framework. The case study that is used to create this framework is the project around the artificial lagoon at Camperduin (NL). This lagoon has been created in 2015 and the maintenance contract has ended in 2020. Policymakers and stakeholders, among which the municipality of Bergen, are discussing if they will carry on the maintenance or if the lagoon should be removed. To get insight into the opinions of the different stakeholders, a stakeholder analysis is carried out.The outcomes are translated into cognitive maps. Based on the outcomes of the cognitive maps, a System Dynamics Model is created that represents a simplified representation of the dynamics of the system of the project around the lagoon. This System Dynamics Model is finally integrated with an Agent-Based Model which has resulted in an integrated hybrid model. With this integrated hybrid model, policymakers can identify the best practice for the maintenance of the lagoon by experimenting with different values for parameters. The model has shown that it is most beneficial for the municipality to keep on maintaining the lagoon through dredging the trench to ensure a flow of fresh water. This promotes the quality of the lagoon which will attract more visitors. More visitors generate a flow of money for the municipality with which they can cover the maintenance costs.