Homeostatic behaviour in democratic societies under climate change

Abstract

Homeostatic behavior is a regulative mechanism in complex systems where internal state variables are maintained within certain bounds under varying external conditions. In this project we investigate how different parameters lead to regimes of relative stability in election outcomes and under which circumstances landslides occur in democratic societies under climate change. We make use of DICE, an integrated assessment model of the world’s climate-economy, and an Ising-like opinion dynamics model on a 2D-lattice small-scale network which allows for external stimulation. The topology of the network is shown to have an impact on election results as well as affecting its statistical properties. The effects of authority, connectivity and clustering between individuals play a heavy role in opinion formation and affect its critical points between ferromagnetic and paramagnetic phases. A coupling mechanism between the climate-economy feedbacks and their effect on voting behaviour was formulated. The coupling involves the optimization of an abatement policy to mitigate climate-induced damages to the world economy by maximizing total welfare, which is distinct for each political party. A projection of election outcomes (and their consequences to the climate-economy) is then numerically estimated by making use of Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the main driving factor in voter perception is the tax that results from abatement policy and that this leads to an upper and lower bound to external stimulation. The climate-induced damages play a minimal role in the short term, but are shown to take over in later years and force the voters into a ferromagnetic state.