Naturally, Gas Free: Using Socio-Demographic Data to Optimize Civic-Engagement in the Dutch Heat Transition

Abstract

The Dutch National Climate Agreement requires a 49% emission reduction in 2030 compared to 1990 levels. To achieve this target, the Dutch built sector must achieve a 3.4Mt emission reduction by making 1.5 million buildings natural gas-free and well-insulated. A major bottleneck in this transition is the limited cooperation of building occupants. Getting occupants involved in the heat transition is challenging due to the diversity of preferences and capabilities they possess with regard to the heat transition. The aim of this research was thus to determine whether socio-demographic characteristics of occupants can help predict an effective role division between the municipality and its residents in the heat transition.

First, the research aimed to identify how socio-demographic characteristics of residents influence the level of ambition and responsibility that residents are willing and able to take on. Based on a review of literature, hypotheses were developed regarding the relationship between residents’ socio-demographic characteristics and their preferences. The choice of relevant pref- erences and capabilities was based on an existing framework by Ebskamp and Verbraak (2019), who developed a set of considerations based on which the level of ambition and distribution of responsibilities within the heat transition can be defined. To test the hypotheses, logistic regressions were performed on relevant data from the LISS (Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social sciences) panel administered by CentERdata (Tilburg University, The Netherlands). The resulting explanatory model indicates that certain socio-demographic characteristics are significantly associated with residents’ perceptions and capabilities with regard to the heat transition. Accordingly, socio-demographic characteristics can influence the level of ambition and responsibility that residents are willing and able to take on.

Next, the research aimed to identify whether socio-demographic characteristics can be used to predict an effective ambition level and responsibility distribution. Again, logistic regressions were used to test the relationship between respondents’ socio-demographic characteristics and their preferences and capabilities with regard to the heat transition. These models were optimized for predictive purposes. Based on measures of calibration, discrimination and cross-validation it was concluded that the models have insufficient predictive power to predict a municipal strategic role based on socio-demographic characteristics of residents.

Given the failure of the predictive model, recommendations were made based entirely on the explanatory model. Municipalities were recommended to consider how the spatial distribution of socio-demographic characteristics between districts may impact the preferences and capabilities of residents. Given that the distribution of socio-demographic characteristics, and thus the preferences and capabilities of residents, generally varies between districts, municipalities can consider altering their strategic role accordingly.