Scenarios as a Tool for Sparking Public Discourse on Futures

Abstract

Whether it be for sustainability transitions or more targeted agendas, the world right now is going through an intense and dramatic period of change. In times of uncertainty, it is important for people to have a shared vision of what they want their world to look like when the dust settles. Scenarios are a tool to help construct this vision. Scenarios are narratives of potential futures told in words, numbers or images that aim to free the human imagination to explore the possibilities of what could be. They are usually offered as a way to conceptualize different possible futures when imaginations are restricted and can be especially useful and inspiring in times of uncertainty. More and more there is an echo of the need to include the public in decision-making processes. To open public discourse about the possibility of different futures means to spark public conversations about the idea that the future is not just influenceable, but designable, and that the choices made in the present have the power to steer us down a multitude of different paths. Using scenarios to achieve this is possible, as this research will show. By allowing the public to discuss and negotiate between different possible pathways with real trade-offs the scenarios can give agency back to the people by showing them that the power to decide is theirs. In realizing that they have consequential choices and are not just being granted the illusion of choice to placate them, the power to create an infinite number of possible futures becomes real. This project will explore how scenarios can be used to open public discourse about the possibility of different futures, and what is needed to create those scenarios. It presents four scenarios that were developed following this process that were released into the public domain via publication in the media and then examines the results therein. It concludes by showing that for scenarios to engender discourse about the possibility of different futures, people's minds cannot already be made up about which future they want before the discussion starts, meaning that the difference in desirability among the scenarios cannot be too stark. Scenarios for public consumption should be designed with the public as the first priority and be strategically released to encourage discursive engagement.