| dc.description.abstract | Electrification of energy demand combined with increased renewable energy generation are key drivers for reducing CO¬2 emissions. However, these measures also result in increased strains on the Dutch power grid, leading to substantial infrastructure costs and posing challenges for electrical infrastructure planning. Grid simulation models are becoming increasingly relevant for forecasting grid expansion requirements. However, these models can be very complex, requiring specific expertise and data. For national strategic policy advisory bodies such as PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, it is not feasible to build, operate and maintain such complex models. Therefore, this study makes a first step in the development of a simplified grid simulation model. To limit model complexity and data requirements, a nationally aggregated representation of the power grid is used. Power flows are simulated using nationally aggregated load and generation profiles. The power flows are used to determine the required capacity of grid assets for a reference year and a freely configurable future scenario year. This is then translated into capacity expansion requirements and eventually used to calculate infrastructure costs.
The model constructed in this study does express some important features which resemble the behavior expected from the actual power system. However, unrealistic model behavior also occurs resulting from the absence of flexibility options such as energy storage, demand response and curtailment. Furthermore, modelling results are accompanied by large uncertainties, due to unclear effects of self-consumption of decentralized generation and the lack of access to more accurate input data from grid operators. Finally, considerations for future research are presented and the inherent feasibility of the modeling approach is evaluated. | |
