What drives sustainable agricultural transitions? An analysis of the regime change in Irish dairy farming

Abstract

Scholars have called for a transition in the agricultural system – a systemic shift from the production-oriented system – labelled the ‘productivist regime’ – towards an alternative, sustainable system (Lamine, 2011; Caron et al., 2014). In order to make such a transition, farming practices must be locally-adapted to specific circumstances and therefore there are many uncertainties as to knowing the most suitable solutions for each individual site. A governance structure is required that provides actors with the agency to act independently and overcome these uncertainties through collaborative learning processes. The challenges for implementing an agricultural transition are situated within the array of lock-in factors that exist within the productivist system, reinforced through policies, power imbalances, and path dependencies that cause the current paradigm to be highly persistent. These lock-ins explain why most sustainable farming systems rarely ever expand beyond individual, local-scale cases. However, this research draws on an example where such a transition appears to have emerged on a national scale. In the Republic of Ireland, a coalition has formed between the Government and the agri-food sector, who have committed to an ambition of sustainable growth in the sector, including the target to increase the dairy industry by 50% between 2015 and 2020, whilst simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing biodiversity (Bord Bia, 2016). This ambition seems remarkable since rising production usually is paired with increasing emissions; therefore, this research seeks to understand the societal factors and processes that led to these ambitions, and to what extent these have resulted in an actual transition on the ground. This research develops an analytical framework for agricultural transitions by complementing existing transition theory with agency-related concepts and tests the theory on the Irish case study to understand what contributed to change or stability in the dairy sector. Through an event history analysis – developed using literature and historical media articles, together with 17 interviews carried out with individuals involved in the Irish transition process – the research finds that the Irish dairy sector has failed to make a sustainable transition due to a dominant coalition of powerful actors who have failed to apply radical sustainability action within the dairy industry and have continued to pursue the productivist paradigm. This ‘iron triangle’ of actors have managed to pursue the productivist paradigm by excluding critical voices from the decision-making process. Lessons are learned about critical factors and processes which cause the productivist regime to remain stable.