Including the emissions from international bunker fuels in greenhouse gas targets: a techno-economic analysis of the implications for the Dutch energy system in 2030 and 2050
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The 1997 decision by the UNFCCC to exclude the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international bunker fuels (IBFs) from the Kyoto protocol has left a large portion of the global GHG emissions unaccounted for. Addressing these emissions is necessary if serious efforts are to be made to limit global temperature rise in line with the Paris agreement. However, difficulties related to the allocation of these emissions have previously prevented action from being undertaken. In this study, Dutch statistics regarding the flow of freight and persons are used to calculate a demand for marine and jet fuels that is placed under the responsibility of the Netherlands. Next, forecasts from literature are used to project how high this demand will be in 2030 and 2050. Results from this part of the study project that the Netherlands will be responsible for a demand of 178 PJ marine fuels and 166 PJ jet fuels in 2030. In 2050, the Netherlands is projected to be responsible for a demand of 155 PJ marine fuels and 208 PJ jet fuels. During the second part of this study it is investigated how the Netherlands can best meet its future energy needs if the emissions from the IBFs it is held accountable for are included in the countries GHG reduction targets. This part of the research is carried out with the aid of the national energy model OPERA. The results show that a high energy demand and low supply of renewable energy resources in the Netherlands make it challenging for the country to achieve its national GHG reduction targets, even if the emissions from IBFs are excluded in these targets. If the emissions from IBFs are included in the Dutch GHG reduction targets, compliance with these targets while meeting all national energy needs becomes much more expensive as competition over limited renewable resources increases. In many scenarios, compliance with the GHG reduction targets is only possible if large amounts of biomass can be imported and if the potential of carbon capture and storage (CCS) is sufficiently high.