Relying on dykes while preparing for the worst. The value of visioning and backcasting for long-term strategic planning on a local level to break existing trends and use a wide range of flood risk management strategies in an area with high and increasing flood risks: the case of Dordrecht, the Netherlands

Abstract

This Master’s thesis research investigates the use of a backcasting approach for long-term strategic planning in flood risk governance on a local level. The extreme case of the city of Dordrecht in the Netherlands is used. Dordrecht is an area below sea level in the Netherlands, that has to deal with high flood risks that increase in the future due to climate change. The munic-ipality of Dordrecht has put effort in broadening the use of flood risk management strategies in an institutional environment that has a strong focus on the single strategy of defence by dykes and is currently starting implementation of several flood risk management strategies. This research designs a backcasting approach for the flood risk governance arrangement in Dordrecht. The design is based on a literature review of backcasting practices and an analysis of the flood risk governance arrangement in Dordrecht using the policy arrangements approach as analytical framework and interviews with actors from the flood risk governance arrangement in Dordrecht. The backcasting approach is tested in a workshop with actors from the flood risk gov-ernance arrangement in Dordrecht. The results of the research show that a backcasting approach in this case that is already in an advanced stage, can serve the purpose of aligning a long-term vision for flood risk governance and find oversights in iden-tified flood risk management strategies. More fruitful would be the use of the later steps in a backcasting approach, in which policies for flood risk management strategies are tested for robustness using exploratory scenarios, and their feasibility and public support is improved by elaboration of the policies with citizen and company actors. The results implicate that long-term strategic planning for flood risk governance on a local level benefits from a strong vision for the future and an extensive network for using knowledge and expertise. Barriers for a local actor that breaks with dominant trends are the lack of financial resources and the lack of recognition of the newly identified flood risk management strategies by the institutional environment in the Netherlands. Embedding a broader range of flood risk management strategies in the Dutch national flood risk governance arrangement is a strong recommendation of this research. An application of backcasting in a less advanced local flood risk governance arrangements is needed to test the results of this study.