Targeting Energy Efficiency: Exploring energy intensity pathways towards a global target

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals were formed in 2015 which envisioned the progress needed to transition towards a sustainable planet. Global goals and accompanying targets were hereby identified that outlined the desired progress until 2030. One of the set targets is to double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. This means a reduction in global energy intensity from 5.8 to 3.42 MJ per $2011 PPP GDP should be observed between 2010-2030. Pathways that explore how this target could be achieved with national efforts were however not available. The objective of this research was therefore to expose the link between the global target and national energy efficiency commitments in order to stimulate the needed progress. A top-down allocation approach was used to translate the global target into fair and effective national targets, while a bottom-up national commitments approach was used to deduce possible future energy intensity levels from bundled information on national energy efficiency commitments in country profiles. A composite indicator allocation method was used to model six scenarios with different weightings for the energy intensity, energy use per capita, CO2 intensity of energy use, and GDP per capita indicators. 20 identified high-impact countries with around 70% global coverage were considered in this top-down part of the research. Country profiles were made in the bottom-up part of the research for the top five high impact countries, China, the United States, India, the Russian Federation and Japan. Information on national commitments was combined with available projections for TPES and GDP to deduce the possible future energy intensity levels of these countries. The allocation scenario in which the weighting system was corrected for the correlation between the indicators outlined a pathway that was the most fair and effective in reaching the global target among the high-impact countries. The United States, Japan and the Russian Federation showed the need for increased efforts to make improvements at the allocated target rates, while China and India are indicated to achieve their allocated energy intensity targets. The results reveal that allocation methods from different fields of study can be adapted for allocation of the set energy efficiency target. The model also showed to be valuable for monitoring, evaluation and feedback purposes that can enhance the rate of improvement to the desired level to reach the global target.