Serious gaming for climate tipping points: The effects of a role-play simulation game designed for climate negotiators on perceptions of risks and efficacy associated with climate tipping points

Abstract

If countries fail to combat global warming, it is likely that dangerous tipping points of the climate system will be triggered this century, with catastrophic and irreversible impacts on human wellbeing. Although climate tipping points are closely related to global temperature and thus the 1.5°C and 2°C Paris Agreement targets, the issue remains largely ignored in climate negotiators and are often not incorporated in belief systems of the participants of UNFCCC negotiations. Moreover, much is unknown about the way climate negotiators perceive the risks associated with climate tipping points (i.e. risk perception) and the extent to which they feel capable of influencing the likelihood of avoiding tipping points (i.e. perceived efficacy). Psychological research suggests that risk perception and perceived efficacy are important psychological factors underlying climate change action. Therefore, the current research explores these perceptions and how this can be influenced by means of serious gaming. The research reports on findings of the Gaming Climate Futures project, where a role-playing simulation game has been developed in which climate negotiators explore the relationship between global temperature goals and climate tipping points and imagine climate futures following a collective decision-making process. Survey data that revealed a further understanding of risk and efficacy perceptions and the effects of this game on these perceptions was investigated. Results indicated that the risks associated with climate tipping points were perceived as highly serious, although study participants were not convined about the understanding within the UNFCCC regarding appropriate governance responses to climate tipping points. Thus, a mismatch appears between on the one hand lacking understanding and belief in efficacy of the UNFCCC and on the other hand high perceived risk. The role-playing simulation resulted in increased concern, but no change in perceived efficacy. This research emphasizes the importance in addressing the identified mismatch and the potential of serious gaming in this, particularly when combined with a mix of scenario approaches. Thereby, this research provides valuable insights in the role of cognition in global climate negotiations and serious gaming as science-policy interface in global climate governance.