Prospects for Phasing Out Nuclear Energy in Belgium - Stakeholders, Advocacy Coalitions and a Transboundary Phase-Out Strategy

Abstract

Being confronted with concerns from both inside Belgium and abroad, the operation of Belgian nuclear power stations constitutes a controversial issue of cross-border relevance. Drawing on stakeholder theory and borrowing core concepts from the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF), this paper offers a systematic stakeholder-centered analysis of the present policy dispute as well as an evaluation of prospects for a Belgian nuclear phase-out. It identifies key stakeholders in the decision-making process and analyzes their diverging positions and beliefs. Eight semi-structured interviews with crucial stakeholders and political insiders shed light upon the policy debate and reveal major lines of argumentation and conflict. Theoretically deduced preconditions for policy change are consequently compared to the current situation in Belgium. Results indicate that despite the Belgian Federal Government’s commitment to stop domestic nuclear energy generation by 2025, this endeavor cannot be taken for granted. Further lifetime extensions of nuclear power plants appear to be a realistic future scenario under given circumstances. Although there seems to be increasing agreement on a major sectoral transformation toward renewable energies, members of the pro- and anti-nuclear coalition differ drastically in their assessment of an adequate and manageable temporal horizon for phasing out nuclear power. Based on theoretical suggestions and analytical findings, tangible recommendations for future stakeholder action to support policy change in Belgium are given.