Scenarios for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of the Dutch dairy sector
Summary
The Paris Climate agreement states that global temperature increase due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions must be kept below 2 °C, with an effort to limit it to 1.5 °C. Agriculture and related land use change globally contribute to about 25% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Within agriculture, livestock farming is the most important source of emissions. Especially raising ruminants produces high levels of GHG emissions, through enteric fermentation and low feed to food conversion rate. Dairy farming is an important sector in the Netherlands, with almost 2 million dairy cows and providing a livelihood for 30,000 people. GHG emissions levels are therefore likely high, but due to differences in allocation mechanisms in emission reporting, some analysis is needed to determine the cradle to farm gate emission of milk production in the Netherlands. The sector itself wants to reduce emissions with 20% in 2020 compared to 1990. However, this goal is not in alignment with the Paris agreement, so emissions will need to be reduced further. There are measures that can be taken on-farm to reduce the GHG emissions of a kg of milk. These measures cannot always be combined with each other, as they correspond with different types of farming. Therefore, there is a need for an overview of GHG reduction measures and how they can be combined. First, a literature review was conducted on the magnitude and sources of emissions from dairy farming in the Netherlands and potential mitigation measures. Secondly, interviews with experts in the dairy sector were held to improve information on the mitigation measures and to identify the participants views of the future of the dairy sector. These were used to develop three story-based scenarios in which mitigation measures were combined to reduce the emissions of milk production. It was found that the emissions of cradle to farm gate dairy production were 19.7 Mt CO2-eq in 2015. Emissions should be reduced with 40% and 47% in 2030 compared to 1990 to comply with the Paris agreements targets of 2 °C and 1.5 °C respectively. If all measures of either the Unlimited Efficiency [1] and Limited efficiency [2] scenarios would be applied to all dairy farms in the Netherlands, both these targets would be met. The measures in the Nature-inclusive scenario [3] do not adequately reduce emissions. However, the Unlimited Efficiency [1] and Limited Efficiency [2] scenarios do have severe side-effects on other environmental indicators and animal welfare.