Winkelend Nederland op de voet gevolgd

Abstract

This master’s thesis explores the various factors that affect customer behaviour in retail centres. Footfall, the number of people entering a shop or shopping area in a given time, can be measured in various ways, such as camera counts and Wi-Fi probe-data of smartphones. This study analyses two billion camera-observations that are gathered from over more than a hundred Dutch shopping malls. The main aim of this thesis is to find the most important factors that affect footfall. Both attributes on daily-level and characteristics of shopping centres are tested on relationships with each other and footfall counts. With this in mind, it is possible to develop a model that helps to forecast footfall. Second, the predicted values will be compared to actual observations in a number of particular cases; for example, significant increase of footfall due to special events or the introduction of new retail formulae. These cases will be discussed with specialists like marketing and centre managers to qualify quantitative research. Thirdly, this thesis will offer advice based on the study’s results about the differences between centres, with their corresponding explanatory factors, and influence of promotional events or new retail formulae. It will also discuss the generalisability of the study’s result. This explanatory and predictive information can help investors and retail entrepreneurs to deepen their understanding of the retail business. Patterns in day of the week, month in a year and holidays have a major influence. Weather, purchasing power and type of mall are also important indicators. Both short and long term trends can be taken into account. Moreover, it is possible to measure influential events, as well as comparing explanatory factors between centres and creating forecasts for future shopping malls.