On the deployment of Bio-CCS in the EU: Barriers and policy requirements for a 2°C pathway

Abstract

For the European Union to be consistent with a 2°C emission pathway, a considerable amount of negative emissions will need to be generated up to 2050 with carbon dioxide removal methods. One of these methods is bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which plays a dominant role in integrated assessments models due to its upscaling potential and relative technology maturity. However, very few successful efforts have been made to generate negative emissions with BECCS and failing to do so in the first half of this century will severely reduce the chance of achieving global climate targets.

Complying with a 2°C consistent pathway implies that the EU needs to deploy 56—64 GWe of solid biomass BECCS. Upscaling can fundamentally be realised by either (i) increasing the level of co-firing in fossil CCS plants, (ii) retrofitting existing bioelectricity plants or (iii) constructing dedicated BECCS plants. However, only 20 GWe of additional capacity would be required, as there is a considerable retrofitting and co-firing potential in Europe. Furthermore, the identified methods vary in technological readiness and even more so in costs. However, at €86/tCO2, method (iii) is the most cot-efficient in storing a tonne of biogenic CO2, i.e. negative emissions while being the most expensive in terms of support per unit electricity generated.

Expert interviews and literature analysis yielded barriers of varying natures, although the most prominent barriers where those of a political or regulatory nature. One of these barriers is the absence of recognition and remuneration for negative emissions, which has so far led to an insufficient incentive for key actors to engage in BECCS. Interestingly, the presence of these barriers in different Member States can vary considerably—generic EU wide policy will therefore not be effective. For some barriers, the development of country-specific policy is recommended.

Indeed, most of the identified barriers can be mitigated through existing domestic and EU policy. However, for some barriers it was found that existing policy will not be sufficient. The EU ETS, even when amended, would still not be capable of sufficiently incentivising negative emissions from BECCS. Additional funding mechanisms are therefore essential. The window of time to introduce amendments and new policy is tightening, since deploying BECCS at levels consistent with the 2°C target requires ambitious upscaling from 2025. Initiating discussions and raising awareness on BECCS and negative emissions is therefore fundamental to ensure well-informed decisions are made in the short-term.