Will ISIS be able to Persist in its Current Form? A Case Study on the Socioeconomics of Terrorism

Abstract

After ISIS committed a series of high profile attacks, policymakers have intensified their efforts to combat the organization. Given that the predecessor of ISIS, the ‘Islamic state of Iraq’, managed to revitalize itself after being on the brink of destruction, highlights the need for an in ­depth exploration. In light of this, the paper examines whether the organization can persist in its current form through the analysis of a number of aspects. The paper discusses how ISIS competes with other terrorist organizations, the dynamics of its organizational structure, and how the organization mitigates dependency and risk in its resourcing. The preceding aspects show that ISIS may not persist in its current form in the long­run, given that efforts against the organization are enduring. However, this examination also reveals that the dangers posed by ISIS are not tied to its current form. As such, the paper warns for myopia that allows ‘al ­Qaeda’ to gain dominance, and that ISIS may persist in the form of an insurgency that feeds on Shia retaliation towards the Sunnis. Counterterrorism efforts can be bolstered through the exploitation of agency problems at ISIS, and by implementing alternative forms of good governance which undermine the legitimacy of the organization as a provider.