Improving steel demand modeling in Integrated Assessment Models
Summary
Steel production emits a large share of a country’s greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore it is
important that the steel production is accurately modeled in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).
This thesis focusses on using physical drivers, rather than GDP, in a method to model steel demand.
These drivers are based on the two largest steel consuming end-use sectors: construction and
automotive. Within those sectors, 9 drivers for steel demand were identified. After statistical
analysis, only population, new dwellings constructed, total floor area and motor vehicles produced
showed strong correlations with their sectors’ steel consumption. These four drivers were then used
to model the steel demand for the entire end-use sector. The method used for modeling is a bottomup
model based on population size and historical trends of steel intensity and product intensity.