Making sense of risks: A hybrid argumentative-narrative approach to risk assessment

Abstract

Risk management is relevant in a large array of industries and other fields concerned with acting upon risks in a timely manner. Several dynamic sub-processes lay at the foundation of risk management. A sub-process that plays a central role is risk assessment, which revolves around the identification and analyses of risks and mitigating measures.

To conduct a risk assessment, several methods and tools have been developed, ranging from simple to more complex ones. In this thesis an analysis is made of different methods and tools. The analysis is based on literature research and experiences and insights of our case organization, the Dutch police force. The results from the analysis show that the methods and tools are either too simple, in these sense that risk scenarios are not sufficiently analyzed, or too complex due to the requirement of complex mathematical, statistical or formal knowledge.

This thesis proposes a risk assessment model based on the hybrid theory by Bex, Van Koppen, Prakken, and Verheij (2010). The hybrid theory enables to make sense of evidential data and has its roots in artificial intelligence and law. Translated to risk assessment, a model based on the hybrid theory can enable to make sense of risks by providing an accessible, systematic and dynamic way of identifying and analyzing risk scenarios and mitigating measures. The case study has revealed howreoccurring patterns of risks can be identified and applied in practice.

Because the model consists of abstract concepts, which are not difficult to understand by an everyday reasoner, the model can be used to develop risk assessment methods and tools, such as the iTable application of the Dutch police force.