Residential energy savings on a tight schedule: An ex-ante hybrid bottom-up approach to evaluate contributions of energy efficiency and conservation measures to enhance short-term energy security
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Short-term energy security (STES) regarding natural gas and electricity has become a high priority on the EU energy agenda. Residential short-term energy efficiency and conservation measures (STEECMs) could have a significant contribution to improve STES. A limited amount of research has attempted to quantify impact of STEECMs on STES. Therefore, this study attempts to quantify contributions of STEECMs to STES by setting up of a detailed ex-ante bottom-up STEECM model. An extensive literature overview is conducted to develop such a model. With Germany as case-study, a detailed reference case is setup with technical, economic and utilization parameters to describe micro-scale characteristics of five energy end-use services (EEUSs). A list of 39 STEECMs is developed extended with additional technical, economic and socio-behavioral parameters to illustrate micro-scale and macro-scale EEC barriers, short-term energy efficiency and conservation potentials (STEECPs), investment costs and energy costs savings. Characteristics of STEECMs can be connected to four dimensions of STES, namely availability, accessibility, affordability and acceptability. Realistic survey data, timescale and disruption severity scenarios and three policy intervention scenarios are developed to simulate realistic energy- or costs savings and lists of favorable STEECMs with regard to a certain STES dimension. Technically, natural gas space heating (SH) STEECMs have the highest micro-scale and macro-scale theoretical STEECP and electricity has no clearly preferred EEUS to realize energy savings. Economically, most energy costs can be saved by space heating- and lighting STEECMs, but affordability is inhibited by long payback periods for renovation and technology replacement. Utilization behavior STEECMs have the lowest implementation difficulty, while renovation and technology replacement have the lowest impact on comfort level. Favorable STEECMs with the highest realistic STEECP could save up to 23% of German residential final electricity and natural gas use, but there is some uncertainty on sufficient stocks and professional installers. Favorable STEECMs in a small disruption scenario are dominated by electricity measures with limited technical contribution (8-13%). A severe disruption scenario favors more SH and domestic hot water (DHW) with a combined STEECP of 15-37% of residential final natural gas and electricity use. An informational and awareness campaign strongly improves a small disruption scenario (11%), but has less impact on severe disruption scenarios (33%). Price signals improve the affordability and subsidy schemes make technology replacement more common in the list of favorable STEECMs to contribute to STES.