Global GHG abatement potential for the nitrogen fertlizer industry up to 2030
Rangel Campos, M.
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This dissertation studies the global GHG abatement potential of nitrogen fertilizer industry up to 2030. In order to acknowledge it, a data base of the major nitrogen producing countries that make up 80% of global production was created. The data base focused on energy use, energy intensities, GHG emissions and intensities of the three major fertilizers: ammonia, urea and nitric acid. Moreover the current technology status, the technological options to increase energy efficiency and reduce GHG emissions, the costs of it and the rate of implementation was discussed and analysed. Besides the baseline scenario on 2005 two other scenarios were defined to contrast and compare the forthcoming situation up to 2030: frozen efficient scenario and business as usual scenario. It was assumed that on the frozen efficiency scenario the technological development remains constant as in 2005 and on the business as usual scenario the new production is assumed to run on BAT levels the old production increases its efficiency by a certain percentage per year. The results show that ammonia is the biggest nitrogen fertilizer. According to the model, its production is expected to increase 30% from 2005 (126Mt) to 2030 (179Mt). China is the biggest contributor (42%) followed, in a much lesser degree, by India (13%), Indonesia (7%), Russia and US (6%). The global GHG emissions released in 2005 due to nitrogen fertilizers reached 418 Mt CO2. The total GHG emissions are expected to increase 26% from 2005 to 2030 in the frozen efficiency scenario (564 Mt CO2 in FE), and 14% in the business as usual scenario (486 Mt CO2 in BAU). The global CO2 abatement potential represent a 27,4% decrease in the frozen efficiency scenario and 24,4% in the business as usual scenario.