Beschermende factoren als moderator. Hoe beoordelaars beschermende factoren wegen in risicotaxatie bij de ambulante forensische populatie

Abstract

The exact mechanism of the interaction between risk factors and protective factors, in relation with delinquency, is unclear. Research has proposed three models: (1) main effect model, (2) mediator model, and (3) moderator model. This study tried to answer the question, whether the total number of protective factors mediate or moderate the negative impact of the total number of risk factors on the estimated recidivism risk. Recidivism risk was assessed for the type of offense for which the patient came into therapy. At the start of the forensic outpatient treatment, risk was assessed with the ´WaagSchaal´ (Van Horn, Wilpert, Scholing & Mulder, 2008) for 5,543 patients. The results showed that protective factors had a direct negative relationship with the estimated recidivism risk, which is in line with the main effect model. Since there was no relationship found between protective factors and risk factors, it could not be assessed whether protective factors work as a mediator. Additionally, the results showed that protective factors work as a moderator to reduce the negative relationship between risk factors and the estimated recidivism risk. The estimated recidivism risk is lower when protective factors are present, especially when there are few risk factors. The moderating effect of the protective factors decreases, when, the number of risk factor increases. When a patient had 10.6 risk factors or more, the moderating effect disappeared. These findings provide insight in how evaluators weigh risk factors and protective factors in the assessment of recidivism risk.