Wedging the Gap - An analysis of the impact of existing large-scale bottom-up initiatives for greenhouse gas emission mitigation in 2020.

Abstract

The international community has agreed on limiting global average temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Current country pledges are, however, insufficient to bridge the emissions gap between business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions and pathways compatible with the 2°C target. Blok et al. (2012) have proposed an approach called ' wedging the gap' to bridge this emissions gap. The approach consists of 21 coherent major global bottom-up initiatives, called wedges , which together have an estimated potential of reducing 10 Gt CO2e by 2020. However, this is a rough estimation based on many assumptions. In this research the commitments of existing large-scale bottom-up initiatives consistent with the ' wedging the gap' approach are analysed. This analysis is carried out for ten of the 21 wedges. For these wedges an inventory of existing initiatives is created. If possible, the emission reduction commitments of the initiatives are quantified compared to business-as-usual emissions assuming the initiatives meet their stated targets. There are strong differences between the amount of currently existing initiatives and their ambition levels within the different wedges. For the six wedges ' Top 1000 companies' , ' Major cities initiative' , ' Cars and trucks' , ' Boost solar photovoltaic energy' , ' Boost wind energy' , ' and ' Agriculture' large-scale bottom-up initiatives with quantifiable targets currently exist. The combined emission reduction commitment of the initiatives in the six wedges that could be quantified is estimated to be in range of 3.2' 4.5 Gt CO2e in 2020, taking into account overlap between the wedges. This is about a quarter of the 14 Gt CO2e emissions gap in 2020. The part of this commitment that is additional to high-ambition government pledges is estimated to be in the range of 2.3' 3.5 Gt CO2e in 2020. This is about one third of the 8 Gt CO2e emissions gap between high-ambition country pledges and the emission level consistent with the 2°C target in 2020. The emission reduction commitment is quantified assuming the initiatives meet their stated targets. However, a preliminary assessment of the levels of commitments shows that only about one third of the stated commitments can be classified as ' strong' . Although the estimated commitment of currently existing initiatives is substantial, it is not enough to bridge the emissions gap. To stay below a 2°C temperature increase above pre-industrial levels major efforts are needed in the coming years. Action has to be taken to start up initiatives in the wedges that are not yet covered and to strengthen and upscale the already existing initiatives. Additional wedges might be needed to be able to bridge the gap. Also, on-going monitoring is needed to assess the extent to which the initiatives fulfil their commitments.