Undermining Afghanistan? Studying the Link Between Violence and Natural Resources Through the Resource Complex

Abstract

This thesis aims to develop a better understanding of the relation between the exploitation of natural resources and violent intrastate conflict. Based on a review of theories of geopolitics and theories of civil war, this thesis presents a new analytical model, called the resource complex. It is the intention of this thesis to present a theory that allows for universal application to situations of natural resource exploitation. Based on the oil complex theory by Michael Watts, the resource complex looks at how governable spaces are created or restructured by means of cleavages and alliances in response to natural resource exploitation on a local level. In this thesis, the model will be applied to a case study of the Aynak copper mine project in Logar province, Afghanistan, in order to test its theoretical value. By using the analysis of the Aynak copper mine in a scenario-building process, the predictive power of the resource complex will also be determined.