Scenario Analysis for GHG emissions from the Built Envirnment of Developing Countries. Indian Residential Sector as a case for illustration
Vazquez Romero, J.
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Buildings are one of the main end-uses of energy and are responsible of roughly a third of total GHG emissions. Although the building sector presents the largest and most cost effective emission reductions possibilities, this sector is currently characterized by an oversized carbon footprint. Following current trends, GHG emissions from building are expected to double by 2050. Developing countries lead the growth of the building sector as it is closely coupled with demographic and economic drivers. These and other variables can be evaluated by their influence on energy demands and thus, can project trends on GHG emissions from the use-phase of buildings. Especially in developing countries, the residential sector accounts for most of the energy consumed in buildings. Three different categories of mitigation measures can be used to make this sector more energy efficient: a better insulation of buildings, fuel switching to more convenient fuels and more energy efficient technologies. Different indicators are used for understanding their potential impact for curbing GHG emissions. India presents a large increase of population coupled with a high, although unequal, economic growth. Due to this fact the Indian residential sector could harvest important results from the implementation of the three categories of measures. Three different scenarios were constructed in order to first evaluate how Indian buildings energy demands could develop in the absence of mitigation measures. Other scenario shows the most important government initiatives targeting the residential sector. A third scenario evaluates further possibilities for curbing the expected high increase of GHG emissions from the Indian residential sector.