Modelling offshore wind in the IMAGE/TIMER model

Abstract

Current global energy consumption is expected to continue to grow as the global population is likely to increase towards 9 billion in 2050 while income levels per capita surge with 3-5% per year. Resource depletion, climate change, air pollution and energy security are several reasons to assume that these energy trends are unsustainable. The IMAGE/TIMER model was developed to gain more insight and understanding in the global environmental system. So far, offshore wind power was not taken into account in the projections. This study investigates how offshore wind power can be modelled in the IMAGE/TIMER framework and the impact of this technology on the electricity production in case of different scenarios. As the offshore wind industry bears great similarity with the onshore wind industry, the technology is modelled such that the specific investment costs are split up into two parts. The first part is similar to the cost of onshore wind, while the second part is the additional costs to place wind farms offshore. This distinction is also implemented in the concomitant learning and depletion effects. Global offshore wind potential estimations were collected in collaboration with the National Institute of Renewable Energy. Cost data was estimated on the basis of the installed wind farms in Western Europe in the past two decades. The inclusion of offshore wind in a baseline scenario resulted in an additional 1445 GW of extra renewable electricity generation capacity compared to a situation without offshore wind. This leads to 44% increase of the global renewable electricity production share and a 4% decrease in the annual CO2 emissions in 2100. Modelling results show that offshore specific policy measures had a strong positive effects on the price development in the period 1990 – 2010 but lacks significant response in later periods. In a 2°C climate target scenario with a compatible carbon tax path the inclusion of offshore wind ensures a 44% increase in the share of renewable energy production. Offshore wind takes op 35% of the total installed renewable generation capacity. Overall, it can be concluded that the impact of offshore wind technology on the global electricity system is significant and that it is likely that it may contribute considerably to reverse several of the unsustainable energy trends.